Monetary Misperceptions: Optimal Monetary Policy under Incomplete Information,
Working paper: SSRN
Abstract: Inflation targeting is strictly suboptimal when economic actors have incomplete information about the state of the economy. Nominal income targeting is approximately optimal, and exactly optimal under certain parameterizations. We derive this result in a “Lucas islands” monetary misperceptions model built from, unlike prior work, explicit microfoundations. Agents have knowledge of local productivity and money supply conditions, but must perform a signal extraction problem each period to estimate the aggregate productivity shock and the aggregate money supply shock. Without full information, agents cannot perfectly distinguish between relative price shocks and aggregate shocks, causing monetary policy to affect the real economy. Since the model is built from agents optimizing from first principles, we are able to take a second-order welfare approximation and ask what monetary policy rule is optimal. In contrast to sticky price or sticky information models, inflation and price level targeting are always suboptimal, as price level variation provides useful information to agents. Under log utility, nominal income targeting is optimal.
Central Banks and Food Banks: What can food banks teach us about optimal monetary policy under incomplete information?
Working paper available upon request
Abstract: Inflation targeting is suboptimal when agents in the macroeconomy face incomplete information, while nominal income targeting is welfare-maximizing. This is demonstrated formally, and also intuitively through discussion of a scrip economy designed to allocate donations among American food banks which operate under incomplete information.
Works in progress
Towards An Understanding of the Economics of Apologies: Theory and evidence from a large scale natural field experiment with Uber
Slides available upon request