Essays that are as good as journal articles:

1. It was a mistake to switch to sticky price models from sticky wage models
2. Newcomb’s problem is just a standard time consistency problem
3. AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years

Best essays, by category

Monetary economics

1. Monetary misperceptions, food banks, and NGDP targeting
2. It was a mistake to switch to sticky price models from sticky wage models
3. Recessions are always and everywhere caused by monetary policy
4. Explaining Tyler Cowen’s Third Law

Economic growth

1. What kind of “growth” slowdowns should we care about?

Asset pricing

1. The "Efficient Restaurant Hypothesis": a mental model for finance (and food)
2. Yes, markets are efficient – *and* yes, stock prices are predictable
3. Behavioral biases don't affect stock prices

Behavioral economics

1. Loss aversion is not what you think it is

Public health

1. School and teen suicide

AI / decision theory

1. AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years
2. Newcomb’s problem is just a standard time consistency problem
3. Against using stock prices to forecast AI timelines

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